Counting of votes for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections began on 14 November 2025. Early trends showed the NDA taking a commanding lead.
The majority mark for the Bihar Assembly is 122 seats. Early trends show the NDA has already crossed this threshold, signalling a likely return to power.
The fact that the NDA crossed the majority mark early suggests strong voter support for the alliance and its leadership. For the opposition alliance, the early lead by NDA puts them on the back foot.
Why This Matters
It reshapes Bihar’s political dynamics: a decisive win by NDA would strengthen its mandate and give the JD(U)-BJP axis continuity of government.
For the opposition, it raises questions about strategy, leadership and appeal across key demographic groups.
It could influence governance priorities: with a strong majority, the NDA may pursue its agenda more vigorously.
At a national level, a big victory in Bihar could bolster the NDA’s confidence ahead of other state polls or national elections.
Tight Contest in Raghopur
Raghopur has symbolic value: for the RJD and the Yadav family, winning this constituency is both a political and emotional priority.
For the BJP/NDA, capturing it would represent a major symbolic breakthrough and a signal of shifting loyalties in such bastion seats.
It reflects larger trends, i.e., even as NDA may dominate the state overall, some local pockets are fiercely contested, showing that not all outcomes are predetermined.
While the NDA is surging ahead broadly, one of the most closely watched constituencies is Raghopur in Vaishali district, where Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD is contesting. This seat has been a stronghold for the Yadav family for years.
Status of the Contest
Early rounds showed Tejashwi Yadav leading: one update indicated he was ahead by 893 votes over BJP’s challenger Satish Kumar (4,463 to 3,570) in one of the early counting rounds.
In more recent rounds the lead shifted the other way : the BJP’s Satish Kumar was shown ahead by about 1,273 votes according to one live update.
Hence, the contest is still very much open and it’s a nail-biter for both sides.
